A data-driven look at what the January numbers are telling us across Wake, Durham, Orange, and Johnston counties.
As we enter Spring 2026, many homeowners are asking whether this is the right season to list.
The answer is not dramatic.
It’s disciplined.
January’s hyper-local data across the four-county Triangle region gives us a clear picture: the market is balanced, and balance rewards preparation.
Let’s look at what that means.
A Market That Has Rebalanced, Not Reversed
According to the local numbers for January 2026:
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End-of-month inventory is up 29% year-over-year.
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Re-sale inventory alone is up 48% compared to last January.
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Months of housing supply now sits at 4 months, categorized as balanced.
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Average days on market for closed listings is 74 days, up from 59 days last January.
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Average sales-to-original-list price ratio sits around 95–96% across counties.
This is not a stalled market.
It is a recalibrated one.
We are no longer in a 10-day bidding frenzy. But homes are still selling, just with more discernment.
Wake County Snapshot
Because so much attention centers on Wake County specifically:
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Wake County listings are up 35% year-over-year.
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Re-sale listings are up 53% year-over-year.
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Months of supply has moved from 3 months to 5 months.
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Average days on market for closed listings has increased to 74 days.
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Sales-to-original-list price ratio sits at 95%.
More inventory does not mean weak demand. It means buyers have regained choice.
And when buyers have choice, pricing discipline matters.
The Most Important Metric: Pricing and Days on Market
One of the most consistent findings in the January report is the relationship between pricing and timing.
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Listings that sold within the first 10 days achieved between 100–102% of list price.
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After 20 days, the sales-to-list ratio begins declining in roughly 1% increments.
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Listings with at least one price drop sold in an average of 95 days at 91% of original list price.
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Listings with no price change sold in an average of 59 days at 98% of original list price.
Currently, 43% of active inventory has already had at least one price reduction.
That statistic alone tells us something important:
Buyers are still active, but they are responding strongly to correct pricing and hesitating on aspirational pricing.
Spring 2026 favors sellers who lead with precision, not optimism.
Sales Activity: Context Matters
January closings across the four counties were:
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Down 8% year-over-year
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Flat compared to January 2024
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Down 41% compared to December (a typical seasonal shift)
National headlines may call that a “slowdown.”
Locally, it reflects winter seasonality combined with buyer caution.
Mortgage rates averaged approximately 6% in January, a full point below January 2025.
This is not a demand collapse.
It is a value recalibration.
So, Is Spring 2026 the Right Time to Sell?
Here’s the practical answer:
If you are prepared to price accurately and position your home strategically, this market supports you.
If you are testing an aspirational number to “see what happens,” this market will likely correct you.
Balanced markets are not weak markets.
They are disciplined markets.
Spring still brings increased showings (January showings were up 3% year-over-year and 41% compared to December). Activity is returning, but buyers are measured.
What This Means for Raleigh Area Sellers
Spring 2026 rewards:
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Realistic pricing from the outset
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A clear 10–20 day evaluation window
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Strategic marketing
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Early responsiveness to feedback
It does not reward waiting 60 days before adjusting.
If your home is positioned correctly, it can still command strong value, particularly within the first 10–20 days of market exposure.
Final Perspective
The January data across Wake, Durham, Orange, and Johnston counties tells a consistent story:
Inventory has expanded.
Days on market have lengthened.
Negotiation has returned.
But homes are still selling at 95–100% of list price when positioned correctly.
Spring 2026 is not about urgency.
It is about clarity.
And clarity creates confidence.
If you are considering a move this year, reviewing your specific neighborhood data, not just county averages, is the smartest first step.
